SMR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SMR +1.89% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its ai power & nuclear peers -0.1% (-0.2 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.15 +5.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
6.56 +12.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 5.94 · prior close 5.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.53 -5.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
5.18 -11.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.44 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 6.25 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 6.15 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.62 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 6.05 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.98 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 6.82 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.18 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 6.56 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 5.37 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 6.33 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMR's daily swings (about 5.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | -15.7% | -3.9% | -22.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -8.2% | +4.1% | +11.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.6% | +15.3% | +22.9% | -23.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -12.0% | -24.3% | -21.7% | -22.1% |
| May 12, 2026 | -9.7% | -16.2% | -20.3% | -20.1% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -8.8% | +1.3% | -11.0% | -25.6% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | -9.9% | +11.9% | +47.6% | -4.4% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | -10.1% | -3.9% | -14.4% | -13.8% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -4.6% | — | — | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.8% | -4.0% | +4.7% | -14.3% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | -1.1% | -9.3% | +20.0% | -5.3% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | -4.0% | -4.0% | -18.1% | +11.3% |
| Jan 17, 2024 | -6.0% | +11.3% | +39.7% | +141.7% |
| Oct 23, 2023 | -9.2% | -11.0% | -28.1% | -34.2% |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -4.2% | -4.7% | -28.4% | -38.0% |
| Aug 21, 2023 | -2.1% | -7.8% | -15.2% | -61.7% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SMR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
53.43 +799.5% |
| 200-day average | 11.55 +94.4% |
| 50-day average | 8.72 +46.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.56 +10.5% |
| Now | 5.94 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
5.83 -1.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
5.83 -1.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.18 -12.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.