SMTC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SMTC −5.48% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −5.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMTC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
168.71 +5.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
179.77 +12.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 151.49 · prior close 160.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
152.23 -5.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
142.87 -10.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 149.72 | 2 in 10 days | 171.55 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 152.23 | 3 in 10 days | 168.71 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 154.62 | 4 in 10 days | 166.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 137.64 | 2 in 10 weeks | 186.60 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 142.87 | 3 in 10 weeks | 179.77 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 147.92 | 4 in 10 weeks | 173.62 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMTC's daily swings (about 5.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -10.2% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -12.1% | +20.6% | +17.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.9% | +12.7% | +37.3% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -12.3% | -5.7% | +31.8% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -6.1% | +15.5% | +11.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -9.2% | -6.4% | -4.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.6% | +8.6% | +9.9% | +25.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -9.0% | +11.8% | -4.1% | +52.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among SMTC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
197.20 +30.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 179.77 +18.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
160.26 +5.8% |
| 50-day average | 156.90 +3.6% |
| Now | 151.49 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 142.87 -5.7% |
| 200-day average | 121.65 -19.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
62.57 -58.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.