SNAP
Moving with the market
- SNAP +0.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SNAP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.31 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
6.58 +7.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 6.12 · prior close 6.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.90 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
5.65 -7.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.83 | 2 in 10 days | 6.38 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 5.90 | 3 in 10 days | 6.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 5.96 | 4 in 10 days | 6.25 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.51 | 2 in 10 weeks | 6.75 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 6.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 5.78 | 4 in 10 weeks | 6.43 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SNAP's daily swings (about 3.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.9% | +2.1% | — | — |
| Sep 4, 2026 | -4.0% | +6.8% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -8.4% | +3.1% | 0.0% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.3% | +6.8% | +10.4% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -7.9% | -2.4% | +6.9% | — |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -4.2% | +11.5% | +4.1% | +25.1% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -9.6% | -12.2% | -12.2% | +10.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -5.1% | -8.7% | -19.6% | -5.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among SNAP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 24, 2021 |
83.11 +1256.9% |
| 52-week closing high Nov 12, 2025 |
9.09 +48.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.58 +7.5% |
| Now | 6.12 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
6.10 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.65 -7.7% |
| 50-day average | 5.57 -9.1% |
| 200-day average | 5.56 -9.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
3.93 -35.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.