SNDK
Down on China CXMT competition concerns
- SNDK −5.33% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Fool reports renewed selling pressure from Chinese rival CXMT's DRAM progress reigniting memory pricing worries. (fool.com)
- Memory & storage basket -5.2% (-4.1 pts vs SPY; NTAP -7.0%, SKHY -6.1%, STX -4.5%, WDC -4.4%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: SK Hynix (Seoul) -1.7%.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (93 mentions vs 24.7/day the week before): After its 17 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SNDK was higher a week later 11 times out of 17; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +9.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 65 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Outperform, raised target $1,875 → $2,050.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SNDK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,467.28 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,550.35 +10.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 1,403.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,342.19 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
1,270.27 -9.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 1,322.90 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 1,488.67 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1,342.19 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 1,467.28 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1,360.42 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 1,447.62 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,229.82 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 1,601.34 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,270.27 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 1,550.35 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1,309.17 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 1,504.29 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SNDK's daily swings (about 4.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SNDK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 3,600.00 +156.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
2,335.00 +66.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 2,173.00 +54.8% |
| 50-day average | 1,591.35 +13.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,550.35 +10.5% |
| Last close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,403.34 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,270.27 -9.5% |
| 200-day average | 1,199.66 -14.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,000.00 -28.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
127.29 -90.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.