SNPS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SNPS −3.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-3.2% today so far, past its big-drop line of -2.9%): After its 58 big drops in the past 5 years, SNPS was higher a week later 35 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -2.9% and +3.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SNPS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
495.86 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
516.28 +7.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 464.48 · prior close 479.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
464.51 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
446.14 -7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 459.62 | 2 in 10 days | 501.14 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 464.51 | 3 in 10 days | 495.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 469.13 | 4 in 10 days | 490.98 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 435.69 | 2 in 10 weeks | 528.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 446.14 | 3 in 10 weeks | 516.28 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 456.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 504.99 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SNPS's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.0% | +5.4% | +29.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.8% | -11.0% | -6.2% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -7.9% | -2.8% | +7.5% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.9% | -10.3% | +12.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -6.0% | -2.4% | -6.5% | -15.3% |
| May 28, 2026 | -8.6% | +2.9% | -6.9% | -3.3% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -4.3% | +5.6% | +14.9% | -18.3% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | -3.1% | +14.6% | +31.6% | +10.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among SNPS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 700.00 +50.7% |
| All-time closing high Jul 30, 2025 |
645.35 +38.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 570.57 +22.8% |
| 52-week closing high May 26, 2026 |
534.56 +15.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 516.28 +11.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
479.93 +3.3% |
| Now | 464.48 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 446.14 -3.9% |
| 200-day average | 445.99 -4.0% |
| 50-day average | 426.96 -8.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 414.77 -10.7% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 15, 2026 |
367.70 -20.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.