SNX
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SNX −4.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −4.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SNX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
271.15 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
280.58 +6.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 251.60 · prior close 263.76 | |
| Bargain buy side |
256.57 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
247.95 -6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 254.28 | 2 in 10 days | 273.60 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 256.57 | 3 in 10 days | 271.15 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 258.73 | 4 in 10 days | 268.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 243.03 | 2 in 10 weeks | 286.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 247.95 | 3 in 10 weeks | 280.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 252.64 | 4 in 10 weeks | 275.37 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SNX's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.5% | -2.9% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -9.9% | +4.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.0% | +7.1% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -2.4% | +3.4% | +1.7% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -3.1% | +1.3% | +5.7% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -2.6% | +2.5% | +2.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.6% | +2.0% | +6.4% | +8.5% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -6.4% | +2.8% | +4.0% | +11.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among SNX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 23, 2026 |
289.57 +15.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 280.58 +11.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
263.76 +4.8% |
| 50-day average | 261.90 +4.1% |
| Now | 251.60 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 247.95 -1.5% |
| 200-day average | 220.42 -12.4% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
141.35 -43.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.