SOLV
Moving with the market
- SOLV +0.75% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 12): After its 16 big drops in the past 5 years, SOLV was higher a day later 7 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between -1.5% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SOLV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
88.34 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
89.68 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 87.92 · prior close 87.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
86.20 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
84.90 -2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 85.86 | 2 in 10 days | 88.69 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 86.20 | 3 in 10 days | 88.34 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 86.52 | 4 in 10 days | 88.01 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 84.15 | 2 in 10 weeks | 90.48 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 84.90 | 3 in 10 weeks | 89.68 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 85.61 | 4 in 10 weeks | 88.94 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SOLV's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SOLV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 113.00 +28.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 94.31 +7.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
92.44 +5.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 89.68 +2.0% |
| 50-day average | 88.38 +0.5% |
| Now | 87.92 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
87.26 -0.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 84.90 -3.4% |
| 200-day average | 78.23 -11.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 71.00 -19.2% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 7, 2026 |
62.49 -28.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.