SOXX
Reddit attention is surging
- SOXX −2.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Semiconductor sector declining on AI funding doubts and inflation concerns, per multiple sources.
- 19 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SOXX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
531.73 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
547.35 +5.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 507.02 · prior close 519.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
507.40 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
492.92 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 503.55 | 2 in 10 days | 535.79 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 507.40 | 3 in 10 days | 531.73 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 511.01 | 4 in 10 days | 527.97 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 484.60 | 2 in 10 weeks | 556.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 492.92 | 3 in 10 weeks | 547.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 500.80 | 4 in 10 weeks | 538.74 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SOXX's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.6% | +12.5% | +9.4% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.2% | +2.2% | +11.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.0% | -3.3% | -2.2% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.4% | -4.2% | -4.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.5% | +3.9% | +3.8% | -2.0% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.1% | +2.9% | -3.8% | +6.9% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -5.6% | -1.4% | -16.7% | -2.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among SOXX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
654.58 +29.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 547.35 +8.0% |
| 50-day average | 537.77 +6.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
519.42 +2.4% |
| Now | 507.02 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 492.92 -2.8% |
| 200-day average | 466.23 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
267.24 -47.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.