SPCE
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | -0.7%533/1254 up | -1.9%511/1250 up | -8.8%426/1234 up | -18.5%340/1192 up |
| Big drop (-5.8% or worse) | 58 | — | -1.2%21/58 up | -1.0%27/58 up | -6.2%20/57 up | -23.6%16/56 up |
| Big gain (+6.4% or better) | 64 | — | 0.0%32/64 up | -4.5%24/64 up | -9.3%17/64 up | -24.7%17/62 up |
| Earnings beat | 15 | -0.3%7/15 up | -1.2%4/15 up | -1.9%7/15 up | -5.0%4/15 up | -27.7%5/14 up |
| Earnings miss | 5 | -9.3%2/5 up | +0.7%3/5 up | +7.9%4/5 up | -6.1%1/5 up | -22.3%2/5 up |
| 52-week high | 1 | — | +21.7%1/1 up | -29.1%0/1 up | -53.2%0/1 up | -52.4%0/1 up |
| 52-week low | 13 | — | -1.3%6/13 up | -3.1%5/13 up | +0.2%7/13 up | +0.4%8/13 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | — | -0.5%4/9 up | -3.1%3/9 up | -9.1%3/9 up | -32.0%0/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | -6.4%1/8 up | -5.3%3/8 up | -4.6%3/7 up | -29.0%1/6 up |
| RSI oversold | 19 | — | -1.0%7/19 up | -0.4%8/19 up | -10.1%7/18 up | -11.2%8/18 up |
| RSI overbought | 10 | — | -0.7%4/10 up | -11.9%4/10 up | -17.4%2/10 up | -33.3%1/10 up |
| Volume spike | 21 | — | -1.0%9/21 up | +2.9%12/21 up | -13.5%8/21 up | -20.4%5/20 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 7 | — | -0.7%2/7 up | -6.9%2/7 up | -27.1%0/7 up | -22.8%0/7 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | +8.3%1/1 up | +132.1%1/1 up | -15.7%0/1 up | -7.4%0/1 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SPCE's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | -0.67% | 533 of 1254 | -0.73% |
-39%
+43%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | -1.94% | 511 of 1250 | -1.89% |
-48%
+132%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | -8.76% | 426 of 1234 | -9.41% |
-63%
+216%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | -18.48% | 340 of 1192 | -19.77% |
-76%
+189%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SPCE's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 114 | -0.8%114 events vs -0.8% | -6.2%114 events vs -6.2% | -15.3%105 events vs -15.3% | -29.9%87 events vs -29.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 942 | -0.7%941 events vs -0.7% | -1.4%937 events vs -1.4% | -6.4%930 events vs -6.4% | -11.4%906 events vs -11.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 368 | -0.6%368 events vs -0.6% | -3.4%368 events vs -3.4% | -12.2%360 events vs -12.2% | -26.9%328 events vs -26.9% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 838 | -0.7%837 events vs -0.7% | -1.3%833 events vs -1.3% | -5.2%825 events vs -5.2% | -10.4%815 events vs -10.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 404 | -0.8%404 events vs -0.8% | -2.3%404 events vs -2.3% | -9.0%402 events vs -9.0% | -23.7%377 events vs -23.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 832 | -0.6%831 events vs -0.6% | -1.7%827 events vs -1.7% | -8.4%813 events vs -8.4% | -14.8%796 events vs -14.8% |
The same event split by where SPCE stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.