SPGI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SPGI +3.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.6%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, SPGI was higher a week later 33 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $525 → $477.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SPGI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
413.90 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
420.58 +2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 420.90 · prior close 408.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
403.31 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
396.91 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 401.62 | 2 in 10 days | 415.64 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 403.31 | 3 in 10 days | 413.90 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 404.90 | 4 in 10 days | 412.28 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 393.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 424.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 396.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 420.58 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 400.40 | 4 in 10 weeks | 416.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SPGI's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SPGI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 553.00 +31.4% |
| All-time closing high Aug 14, 2025 |
528.10 +25.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 516.86 +22.8% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
513.34 +22.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 477.00 +13.3% |
| Now | 420.90 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 420.58 -0.1% |
| 200-day average | 418.80 -0.5% |
| 50-day average | 414.26 -1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
408.57 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 396.91 -5.7% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 11, 2026 |
367.15 -12.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.