SPOT
Moving with the market
- SPOT +0.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $2.85 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±8.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.3% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Neutral, lowered target $530 → $490.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: options price a ±9.5% move through the report.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SPOT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
535.64 +2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
550.43 +5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 527.25 · prior close 523.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
512.54 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
498.77 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 508.88 | 2 in 10 days | 539.48 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 512.54 | 3 in 10 days | 535.64 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 515.97 | 4 in 10 days | 532.07 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 490.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 559.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 498.77 | 3 in 10 weeks | 550.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 506.26 | 4 in 10 weeks | 542.28 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SPOT's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SPOT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 26, 2025 |
775.90 +47.2% |
| Highest analyst target | 701.65 +33.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2025 |
689.21 +30.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 596.12 +13.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 550.43 +4.4% |
| Now | 527.25 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
523.96 -0.6% |
| 50-day average | 519.80 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 498.77 -5.4% |
| 200-day average | 497.57 -5.6% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 5, 2026 |
412.75 -21.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 409.12 -22.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 9 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.