SPRY
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SPRY +2.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SPRY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.09 +4.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.30 +9.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 4.03 · prior close 3.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
3.78 -3.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
3.59 -8.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 3.73 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.14 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 3.78 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.09 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 3.82 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.04 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.49 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.42 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.59 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.30 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 3.69 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.18 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SPRY's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -3.1% | — | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.3% | -18.0% | -16.4% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -8.0% | -10.6% | -2.2% | — |
| Oct 24, 2025 | -5.6% | -1.6% | -11.9% | +15.7% |
| Sep 5, 2025 | -5.8% | -0.4% | +2.0% | -1.0% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | -55.8% | +24.7% | +15.8% | +79.5% |
| May 6, 2022 | -3.2% | -2.0% | +31.5% | +64.9% |
| Mar 31, 2022 | -0.3% | -6.6% | -10.3% | +17.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SPRY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 17, 2021 |
60.41 +1399.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 9, 2026 |
13.06 +224.1% |
| 200-day average | 7.81 +93.7% |
| 50-day average | 5.02 +24.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.30 +6.6% |
| Now | 4.03 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
3.93 -2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
3.93 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.59 -10.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.