SRTA
Moving with the market
- SRTA +0.58% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SRTA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.39 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.53 +5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 4.30 · prior close 4.28 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.17 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
4.05 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.14 | 2 in 10 days | 4.42 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 4.17 | 3 in 10 days | 4.39 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 4.21 | 4 in 10 days | 4.36 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.97 | 2 in 10 weeks | 4.61 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 4.53 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 4.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 4.45 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SRTA's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among SRTA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 16, 2021 |
18.60 +332.1% |
| 52-week closing high May 28, 2026 |
6.47 +50.3% |
| 50-day average | 5.37 +24.8% |
| 200-day average | 5.14 +19.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.53 +5.1% |
| Now | 4.30 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.28 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.05 -6.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
4.03 -6.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.