SSRM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SSRM +1.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SSRM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
31.87 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
33.38 +8.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 31.23 · prior close 30.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
29.57 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
28.23 -8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 29.21 | 2 in 10 days | 32.26 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 29.57 | 3 in 10 days | 31.87 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 29.91 | 4 in 10 days | 31.51 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 27.47 | 2 in 10 weeks | 34.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 28.23 | 3 in 10 weeks | 33.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 28.96 | 4 in 10 weeks | 32.55 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SSRM's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.5% | -6.3% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.2% | -8.2% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.4% | -0.4% | -9.0% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.0% | +5.1% | +24.5% | +18.7% |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -5.7% | -3.4% | +2.0% | +21.7% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -4.8% | -3.3% | -7.0% | +31.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -9.3% | +1.9% | +5.5% | +39.1% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.9% | -2.8% | -1.1% | +28.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among SSRM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 6, 2007 |
43.49 +39.3% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 25, 2026 |
39.21 +25.6% |
| 50-day average | 35.00 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 33.38 +6.9% |
| Now | 31.23 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.70 -1.7% |
| 200-day average | 29.91 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 28.23 -9.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 5, 2025 |
19.46 -37.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.