STE
Moving with its group (XLV +2.4%)
- STE +3.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +3.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.4% (+2.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.0% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, STE was higher a week later 25 times out of 57; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STE only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
219.63 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
222.59 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 223.88 · prior close 217.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
214.92 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
212.06 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 214.16 | 2 in 10 days | 220.40 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 214.92 | 3 in 10 days | 219.63 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 215.62 | 4 in 10 days | 218.91 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 210.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 224.35 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 212.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 222.59 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 213.62 | 4 in 10 weeks | 220.96 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STE's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among STE's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 280.00 +25.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
266.36 +19.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 263.12 +17.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 232.00 +3.6% |
| 200-day average | 225.32 +0.6% |
| Now | 223.88 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 222.59 -0.6% |
| 50-day average | 221.22 -1.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
217.26 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 212.06 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 17, 2026 |
198.79 -11.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 34 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.