STEP
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STEP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
44.24 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
45.53 +5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 44.89 · prior close 43.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
42.22 -2.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
41.02 -5.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 41.90 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 44.58 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 42.22 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 44.24 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 42.52 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 43.93 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 40.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 46.31 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 41.02 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 45.53 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 41.68 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 44.82 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STEP's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among STEP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
73.91 +64.6% |
| 200-day average | 48.47 +8.0% |
| 50-day average | 45.95 +2.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.53 +1.4% |
| Now | 44.89 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
43.22 -3.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 41.02 -8.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 26, 2026 |
39.28 -12.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.