STLA
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- STLA +1.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STLA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
4.40 +3.1% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
4.57 +7.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.35 · prior close 4.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.14 -3.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
3.99 -6.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.10 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 4.44 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 4.40 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.18 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 4.36 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 3.91 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 4.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 3.99 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 4.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.07 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 4.48 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STLA's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | -4.1% | +4.1% | — | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | -3.7% | -6.1% | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.5% | +2.0% | -3.9% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -2.5% | — |
| Jul 8, 2026 | -4.4% | +9.3% | +2.8% | -14.6% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -5.7% | -12.0% | -12.8% | -25.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.3% | -10.6% | -21.1% | -28.3% |
| May 11, 2026 | -3.6% | -0.7% | -11.9% | -26.9% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | -4.6% | -4.6% | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.5% | +2.0% | -3.9% | — |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.6% | -3.7% | -3.5% | -19.0% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | -0.1% | -5.7% | +16.7% | -4.6% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | -23.7% | +6.5% | -5.2% | +6.3% |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -9.4% | -12.7% | +0.7% | +4.5% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | -4.4% | +5.8% | -4.5% | -8.7% |
| Jan 13, 2025 | -1.6% | +7.2% | +7.8% | -24.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among STLA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 25, 2024 |
25.29 +481.3% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 10, 2025 |
12.12 +178.6% |
| 200-day average | 6.93 +59.2% |
| 50-day average | 5.01 +15.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 4.57 +5.0% |
| Now | 4.35 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
4.27 -1.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.27 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 3.99 -8.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.