STNG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- STNG −3.31% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STNG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
87.78 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
90.06 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 83.14 · prior close 85.98 | |
| Bargain buy side |
84.21 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
82.08 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 83.65 | 2 in 10 days | 88.38 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 84.21 | 3 in 10 days | 87.78 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 84.74 | 4 in 10 days | 87.23 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 80.85 | 2 in 10 weeks | 91.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 82.08 | 3 in 10 weeks | 90.06 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 83.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 88.81 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STNG's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | -3.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -4.5% | +1.5% | — | — |
| Aug 26, 2026 | -3.0% | +8.8% | +8.9% | — |
| Aug 11, 2026 | -2.9% | +7.6% | +14.6% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -3.8% | +1.1% | +3.9% | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -4.1% | -11.3% | +1.4% | +4.2% |
| May 27, 2026 | -3.3% | -2.2% | -6.0% | -2.5% |
| May 6, 2026 | -4.7% | -0.5% | -7.4% | -6.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among STNG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 90.06 +8.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 13, 2026 |
88.75 +6.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
85.98 +3.4% |
| Now | 83.14 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 82.08 -1.3% |
| 50-day average | 81.89 -1.5% |
| 200-day average | 74.67 -10.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 5, 2026 |
48.65 -41.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.