STT
Moving with the market
- STT +0.52% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 14 before the open: EPS $3.69 vs $3.68 expected (beat, +$0.01, +0.4%); revenue $4.0B (-0.9% miss). The stock moved -4.1% on Wed's session (-3.1 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 55 big drops in the past 5 years, STT was higher a day later 37 times out of 55; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 2 negative); latest: BMO Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $212 → $200.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
169.24 +1.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
172.19 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 167.75 · prior close 166.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
164.57 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
161.75 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 163.83 | 2 in 10 days | 170.01 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 164.57 | 3 in 10 days | 169.24 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 165.27 | 4 in 10 days | 168.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 160.12 | 2 in 10 weeks | 173.95 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 161.75 | 3 in 10 weeks | 172.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 163.29 | 4 in 10 weeks | 170.57 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STT's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -1.8% | +0.3% | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2026 | -2.3% | -1.4% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -2.7% | -2.0% | -7.0% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -1.9% | +2.2% | -6.5% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | -3.2% | +4.2% | -1.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -3.6% | +6.3% | +9.8% | — |
| Jul 17, 2026 | -1.7% | +1.6% | +5.8% | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | -1.6% | -0.1% | +9.4% | +9.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among STT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 220.00 +31.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 199.03 +18.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 4, 2026 |
193.24 +15.2% |
| 50-day average | 183.59 +9.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 172.19 +2.6% |
| Now | 167.75 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
166.89 -0.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 161.75 -3.6% |
| 200-day average | 155.40 -7.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 150.00 -10.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 17, 2025 |
108.79 -35.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.