STWD
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STWD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.39 +1.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
12.63 +3.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 12.30 · prior close 12.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.01 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
11.79 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 11.95 | 2 in 10 days | 12.45 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 12.01 | 3 in 10 days | 12.39 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 12.07 | 4 in 10 days | 12.33 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 12.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 11.79 | 3 in 10 weeks | 12.63 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 11.91 | 4 in 10 weeks | 12.50 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STWD's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | -1.6% | — | — | — |
| Oct 12, 2026 | -1.5% | -4.3% | — | — |
| Oct 1, 2026 | -2.4% | -3.3% | -7.4% | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -2.6% | -5.0% | -11.5% | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -1.6% | -3.5% | -15.8% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -1.8% | -1.8% | -2.6% | -22.0% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -2.4% | -0.1% | -2.2% | -22.3% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.8% | -0.3% | +2.5% | -6.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among STWD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 10, 2025 |
18.21 +48.1% |
| 52-week closing high Apr 28, 2026 |
17.26 +40.4% |
| 200-day average | 15.62 +27.1% |
| 50-day average | 13.77 +12.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.63 +2.7% |
| Now | 12.30 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
12.20 -0.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 19, 2026 |
11.98 -2.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.79 -4.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.