STZ
Moving with its group (XLP +1.4%)
- STZ +2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.4% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.1% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 73 big gains in the past 5 years, STZ was higher a month later 33 times out of 73; half the outcomes fell between -4.6% and +4.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 10 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 8 negative); latest: Piper Sandler maintained Neutral, lowered target $161 → $125.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STZ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
129.65 +1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
132.46 +4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 130.02 · prior close 127.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
125.21 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
122.55 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 124.51 | 2 in 10 days | 130.38 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 125.21 | 3 in 10 days | 129.65 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 125.87 | 4 in 10 days | 128.96 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 121.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 134.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 122.55 | 3 in 10 weeks | 132.46 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 124.00 | 4 in 10 weeks | 130.91 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STZ's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among STZ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 27, 2024 |
256.59 +97.3% |
| Highest analyst target | 209.00 +60.7% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 4, 2026 |
164.28 +26.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 151.74 +16.7% |
| 200-day average | 141.15 +8.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 132.46 +1.9% |
| Now | 130.02 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
127.41 -2.0% |
| 50-day average | 125.57 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 122.55 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 29, 2026 |
112.77 -13.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 99.00 -23.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.