SYF
Moving with its group (XLF +1.1%)
- SYF +2.10% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue before the open: EPS $2.40 expected (17 analysts); it moved ±3.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 53 big drops in the past 5 years, SYF was higher a month later 31 times out of 53; half the outcomes fell between -4.5% and +8.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $90.00 → $86.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SYF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
72.80 +1.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
74.16 +3.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 73.22 · prior close 71.72 | |
| Bargain buy side |
70.65 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
69.36 -3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 70.31 | 2 in 10 days | 73.16 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 70.65 | 3 in 10 days | 72.80 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 70.97 | 4 in 10 days | 72.47 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 68.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 74.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 69.36 | 3 in 10 weeks | 74.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 70.06 | 4 in 10 weeks | 73.42 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SYF's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -3.1% | -1.3% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -3.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -2.4% | +2.4% | -8.1% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.7% | +4.2% | -2.2% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -2.8% | +6.2% | +7.1% | — |
| Jun 30, 2026 | -3.0% | -10.2% | +1.5% | -5.3% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -3.2% | +1.2% | +12.1% | +14.6% |
| May 19, 2026 | -2.3% | +3.9% | +8.5% | +15.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among SYF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 104.00 +42.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 88.17 +20.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
87.38 +19.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 78.00 +6.5% |
| 50-day average | 76.01 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 74.16 +1.3% |
| 200-day average | 73.72 +0.7% |
| Now | 73.22 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
71.72 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 69.36 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 13, 2026 |
63.25 -13.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 12 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.