SYY
Moving with its group (XLP +1.2%)
- SYY +1.69% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+1.7% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, SYY was higher a week later 33 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +2.0%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SYY only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
81.97 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
83.22 +2.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 82.34 · prior close 80.97 | |
| Bargain buy side |
79.98 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
78.78 -2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 79.66 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 82.30 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 79.98 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 81.97 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 80.28 | 4 in 10 days | 81.67 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 78.08 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 83.97 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 78.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 83.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 79.44 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 82.53 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SYY's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +1.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | +2.2% | -3.5% | -3.4% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | +1.7% | +0.6% | -3.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +1.7% | +2.6% | +0.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +1.9% | -0.6% | +0.9% | -0.9% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.2% | -1.2% | +0.2% | -8.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +1.7% | +5.4% | +3.8% | -0.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +2.6% | +3.8% | +9.7% | +5.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among SYY's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 100.00 +21.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 90.83 +10.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
89.25 +8.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 83.22 +1.1% |
| Now | 82.34 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
80.97 -1.7% |
| 50-day average | 80.31 -2.5% |
| 200-day average | 78.96 -4.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.78 -4.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 78.00 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
67.85 -17.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.