TAC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TAC −0.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TAC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.94 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
13.29 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 12.55 · prior close 12.66 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.39 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
12.06 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.30 | 2 in 10 days | 13.03 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 12.39 | 3 in 10 days | 12.94 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 12.47 | 4 in 10 days | 12.85 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 13.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 12.06 | 3 in 10 weeks | 13.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 12.24 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.10 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TAC's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | -3.1% | -1.2% | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -3.0% | -0.2% | -1.9% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -2.8% | -8.9% | -11.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -2.8% | +6.6% | -3.4% | -4.0% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | -10.4% | +3.2% | +8.5% | -8.5% |
| May 18, 2026 | -2.5% | +13.3% | +9.2% | +0.4% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -5.5% | +6.5% | +18.4% | +7.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | -6.2% | -1.3% | -1.6% | +8.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among TAC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 21, 2008 |
19.16 +52.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 29, 2025 |
17.53 +39.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.29 +5.9% |
| 200-day average | 12.83 +2.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
12.66 +0.9% |
| Now | 12.55 |
| 50-day average | 12.29 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.06 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 15, 2026 |
11.50 -8.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.