TAL
Moving with the market
- TAL −0.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.75 +1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
13.05 +4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 12.48 · prior close 12.51 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.28 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
11.99 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.20 | 2 in 10 days | 12.83 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 12.28 | 3 in 10 days | 12.75 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 12.35 | 4 in 10 days | 12.68 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.83 | 2 in 10 weeks | 13.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 11.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 13.05 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 12.15 | 4 in 10 weeks | 12.88 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TAL's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 19, 2021 |
90.15 +622.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 13.05 +4.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 30, 2025 |
12.91 +3.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
12.51 +0.2% |
| Now | 12.48 |
| 50-day average | 12.01 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.99 -3.9% |
| 200-day average | 11.13 -10.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 25, 2026 |
8.95 -28.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.