TBN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TBN −8.64% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −8.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.3× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TBN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
36.19 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.31 +5.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 32.26 · prior close 35.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.45 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
33.41 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.17 | 2 in 10 days | 36.48 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 34.45 | 3 in 10 days | 36.19 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 34.71 | 4 in 10 days | 35.92 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.82 | 2 in 10 weeks | 37.99 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.41 | 3 in 10 weeks | 37.31 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.98 | 4 in 10 weeks | 36.70 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TBN's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TBN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 31, 2026 |
49.99 +55.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 37.31 +15.7% |
| 50-day average | 36.49 +13.1% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.31 +9.5% |
| 200-day average | 33.72 +4.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.41 +3.6% |
| Now | 32.26 |
| 52-week closing low Nov 25, 2025 |
22.60 -29.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.