TDG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TDG +1.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $1,450 → $1,300.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TDG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
1,122.24 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
1,137.85 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 1,124.24 · prior close 1,109.77 | |
| Bargain buy side |
1,097.44 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
1,082.38 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 1,093.46 | 2 in 10 days | 1,126.32 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 1,097.44 | 3 in 10 days | 1,122.24 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 1,101.16 | 4 in 10 days | 1,118.45 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 1,073.63 | 2 in 10 weeks | 1,147.12 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 1,082.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 1,137.85 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 1,090.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 1,129.27 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TDG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TDG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,972.00 +75.4% |
| All-time closing high Jul 30, 2025 |
1,516.55 +34.9% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 16, 2026 |
1,450.00 +29.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,448.05 +28.8% |
| 200-day average | 1,239.09 +10.2% |
| 50-day average | 1,149.99 +2.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 1,137.85 +1.2% |
| Now | 1,124.24 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
1,109.77 -1.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 1,100.00 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 1,082.38 -3.7% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 17, 2026 |
1,076.01 -4.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.