TDS
Moving with the market
- TDS +0.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.08%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TDS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.64 +2.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
35.54 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 33.96 · prior close 33.93 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.24 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
32.40 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.01 | 2 in 10 days | 34.87 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 33.24 | 3 in 10 days | 34.64 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 33.44 | 4 in 10 days | 34.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.91 | 2 in 10 weeks | 36.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 32.40 | 3 in 10 weeks | 35.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 32.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 35.04 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TDS's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | -3.1% | +1.0% | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.7% | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | -3.2% | +0.1% | +9.3% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -8.4% | +6.8% | +15.0% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | -2.4% | -5.7% | -4.9% | -2.6% |
| Jun 24, 2026 | -3.9% | -1.2% | -8.5% | -2.9% |
| May 22, 2026 | -4.6% | +0.3% | -4.4% | -15.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among TDS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
47.45 +39.7% |
| 200-day average | 39.92 +17.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 35.54 +4.6% |
| 50-day average | 35.15 +3.5% |
| Now | 33.96 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.93 -0.1% |
| 52-week closing low Aug 7, 2026 |
32.95 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 32.40 -4.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.