TDW
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TDW −3.55% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TDW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
84.85 +2.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
87.48 +5.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 79.85 · prior close 82.78 | |
| Bargain buy side |
80.76 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
78.33 -5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 80.11 | 2 in 10 days | 85.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 80.76 | 3 in 10 days | 84.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 81.37 | 4 in 10 days | 84.22 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 76.94 | 2 in 10 weeks | 89.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 78.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 87.48 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 79.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 86.03 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TDW's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.7% | -3.4% | -1.8% | — |
| Sep 3, 2026 | -6.0% | -1.7% | -11.3% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -8.1% | +18.4% | +22.3% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.9% | +12.7% | +18.9% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -4.3% | +5.6% | +17.2% | +18.0% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -4.5% | -9.0% | +6.8% | +24.2% |
| May 21, 2026 | -4.0% | -9.5% | -18.2% | +17.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | -3.9% | -0.8% | -11.3% | -0.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among TDW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 19, 2007 |
2,065.75 +2487.2% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 2, 2026 |
100.61 +26.0% |
| 50-day average | 88.89 +11.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 87.48 +9.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
82.78 +3.7% |
| Now | 79.85 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 78.33 -1.9% |
| 200-day average | 77.84 -2.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 21, 2025 |
47.29 -40.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.