TECK
Moving with the market
- TECK +0.77% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TECK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
66.37 +2.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
68.36 +5.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 65.30 · prior close 64.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
63.27 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
61.42 -5.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 62.78 | 2 in 10 days | 66.89 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 63.27 | 3 in 10 days | 66.37 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 63.73 | 4 in 10 days | 65.89 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 60.36 | 2 in 10 weeks | 69.56 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 61.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 68.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 62.43 | 4 in 10 weeks | 67.26 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TECK's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | -6.3% | -0.9% | +3.4% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -3.3% | +3.8% | +3.9% | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -3.6% | +10.3% | +13.1% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -3.6% | -1.3% | +10.0% | +16.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.0% | +2.9% | +13.2% | +16.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.2% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +15.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -4.7% | -10.9% | -8.5% | -0.1% |
| May 15, 2026 | -6.2% | +2.1% | +9.3% | +5.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among TECK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 8, 2026 |
71.87 +10.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 68.36 +4.7% |
| 50-day average | 66.85 +2.4% |
| Now | 65.30 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
64.80 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 61.42 -5.9% |
| 200-day average | 59.69 -8.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
38.06 -41.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.