TEL
Moving with the market
- TEL −0.32% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 59 big drops in the past 5 years, TEL was higher a month later 38 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +6.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Buy, raised target $241 → $253.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TEL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
213.81 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
218.29 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 209.58 · prior close 210.25 | |
| Bargain buy side |
206.75 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
202.50 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 205.63 | 2 in 10 days | 214.98 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 206.75 | 3 in 10 days | 213.81 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 207.80 | 4 in 10 days | 212.73 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 200.05 | 2 in 10 weeks | 220.97 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 202.50 | 3 in 10 weeks | 218.29 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 204.82 | 4 in 10 weeks | 215.83 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TEL's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.1% | +3.3% | +6.2% | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -2.8% | +1.2% | +9.0% | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -2.1% | -5.0% | -0.7% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -4.2% | +3.3% | +0.1% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -2.2% | -5.7% | -4.3% | -2.3% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.7% | -1.1% | -7.7% | -1.5% |
| May 13, 2026 | -2.8% | -3.0% | +1.7% | +3.8% |
| May 1, 2026 | -2.0% | -0.6% | +3.9% | -0.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among TEL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 306.00 +46.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 250.74 +19.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Nov 5, 2025 |
246.32 +17.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 218.29 +4.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 215.00 +2.6% |
| 200-day average | 212.51 +1.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
210.25 +0.3% |
| 50-day average | 210.21 +0.3% |
| Now | 209.58 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 202.50 -3.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
194.33 -7.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.