TENB
Moving with the market
- TENB −0.22% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TENB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
39.77 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
41.92 +10.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 38.03 · prior close 38.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
36.53 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.67 -9.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 36.03 | 2 in 10 days | 40.33 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 36.53 | 3 in 10 days | 39.77 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 37.01 | 4 in 10 days | 39.27 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.61 | 2 in 10 weeks | 43.23 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 34.67 | 3 in 10 weeks | 41.92 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 35.68 | 4 in 10 weeks | 40.73 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TENB's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | -6.7% | +10.0% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | -6.0% | +17.7% | +35.4% | — |
| Sep 2, 2026 | -3.5% | -6.5% | +7.6% | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | -3.4% | +8.2% | +9.4% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -4.2% | -10.3% | -0.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.3% | +14.6% | +7.3% | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -5.3% | -14.1% | -3.8% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -3.8% | +0.3% | -7.7% | -1.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among TENB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 13, 2022 |
62.66 +64.7% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 14, 2026 |
42.65 +12.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 41.92 +10.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.12 +0.2% |
| Now | 38.03 |
| 50-day average | 36.26 -4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 34.67 -8.9% |
| 200-day average | 27.58 -27.5% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
16.04 -57.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.