TER
Moving with its chip equipment peers
- TER −4.72% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: −4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Chip equipment basket -3.6% (-3.5 pts vs SPY; LRCX -5.1%, AMAT -4.6%, KLAC -3.7%, ASML -1.1%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: Tokyo Electron (Tokyo) -7.8%.
- Aftermath, big drop (-4.7% today so far, past its big-drop line of -4.1%): After its 65 big drops in the past 5 years, TER was higher a day later 46 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +2.5%. History, not a forecast.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 100% positive over the week.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TER only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
374.08 +4.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
393.01 +9.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 342.47 · prior close 359.44 | |
| Bargain buy side |
345.37 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
328.74 -8.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 340.92 | 2 in 10 days | 378.96 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 345.37 | 3 in 10 days | 374.08 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 349.57 | 4 in 10 days | 369.59 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 319.35 | 2 in 10 weeks | 404.57 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 328.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 393.01 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 337.75 | 4 in 10 weeks | 382.52 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TER's daily swings (about 4.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.3% | -12.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -13.3% | +15.9% | +15.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.6% | +0.6% | +13.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.8% | -9.4% | -12.6% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -3.7% | +21.4% | +5.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.4% | +5.1% | +4.3% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.8% | +16.0% | +29.9% | +11.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -9.6% | +2.9% | +13.5% | +29.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among TER's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 550.00 +60.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
483.65 +41.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 446.47 +30.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 393.01 +14.8% |
| 50-day average | 381.62 +11.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
359.44 +5.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 350.00 +2.2% |
| 200-day average | 343.88 +0.4% |
| Now | 342.47 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 328.74 -4.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
136.71 -60.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.