TFC
Rising ahead of its earnings report
- TFC +2.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings tomorrow before the open: EPS $1.17 expected (12 analysts); it moved ±2.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The regional bank ETF (KRE) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.8%): After its 52 big gains in the past 5 years, TFC was higher a week later 32 times out of 52; half the outcomes fell between -1.7% and +3.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, lowered target $55.00 → $50.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TFC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
46.11 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
46.78 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 46.64 · prior close 45.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.04 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
44.39 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 44.87 | 2 in 10 days | 46.28 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 45.04 | 3 in 10 days | 46.11 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 45.20 | 4 in 10 days | 45.94 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 47.18 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 44.39 | 3 in 10 weeks | 46.78 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 44.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 46.41 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TFC's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TFC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 61.00 +30.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 6, 2026 |
54.14 +16.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 54.03 +15.9% |
| 50-day average | 49.22 +5.5% |
| 200-day average | 48.93 +4.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 46.78 +0.3% |
| Now | 46.64 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
45.57 -2.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 45.00 -3.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 44.39 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
39.40 -15.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.