TGT
Moving with its group (XLP +1.1%)
- TGT +1.21% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer staples ETF (XLP) +1.1% (+1.0 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TGT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
157.70 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
160.72 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 157.19 · prior close 155.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
152.95 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
150.09 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 152.19 | 2 in 10 days | 158.49 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 152.95 | 3 in 10 days | 157.70 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 153.66 | 4 in 10 days | 156.98 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 148.43 | 2 in 10 weeks | 162.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 150.09 | 3 in 10 weeks | 160.72 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 151.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 159.06 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TGT's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TGT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 16, 2021 |
228.74 +45.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 190.00 +20.9% |
| 52-week closing high Aug 24, 2026 |
169.89 +8.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 163.50 +4.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 160.72 +2.2% |
| 50-day average | 157.26 0.0% |
| Now | 157.19 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
155.31 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 150.09 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 129.98 -17.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 128.00 -18.6% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
81.44 -48.2% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.