TIC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TIC −0.81% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TIC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.93 +2.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
9.24 +6.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 8.61 · prior close 8.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
8.44 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
8.15 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 8.36 | 2 in 10 days | 9.01 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 8.44 | 3 in 10 days | 8.93 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.51 | 4 in 10 days | 8.85 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 7.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 9.43 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 8.15 | 3 in 10 weeks | 9.24 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 8.31 | 4 in 10 weeks | 9.07 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TIC's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | -7.9% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Jul 20, 2026 | -4.5% | +11.2% | +42.2% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | -5.3% | -7.9% | +34.0% | +16.8% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.2% | +1.2% | -11.2% | +14.5% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | -3.9% | +3.1% | -7.8% | +13.3% |
| May 13, 2026 | -4.9% | -3.9% | -5.4% | +12.3% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | -5.7% | -10.0% | +18.7% | +13.0% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | -9.0% | 0.0% | -5.7% | +8.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among TIC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 26, 2025 |
14.49 +68.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
13.32 +54.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.24 +7.4% |
| 50-day average | 9.23 +7.2% |
| 200-day average | 8.82 +2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.68 +0.8% |
| Now | 8.61 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 8.15 -5.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 20, 2026 |
6.54 -24.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.