TJX
Moving with its group (XLY +1.3%)
- TJX +1.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.3% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 23 overbought readings in the past 5 years, TJX was higher a week later 7 times out of 23; half the outcomes fell between -2.7% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TJX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
144.75 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
147.16 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 144.45 · prior close 142.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
140.94 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
138.63 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 140.33 | 2 in 10 days | 145.38 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 140.94 | 3 in 10 days | 144.75 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 141.51 | 4 in 10 days | 144.17 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 137.29 | 2 in 10 weeks | 148.59 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 138.63 | 3 in 10 weeks | 147.16 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 139.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 145.84 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TJX's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TJX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 198.00 +37.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 170.80 +18.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 12, 2026 |
167.88 +16.2% |
| 200-day average | 151.15 +4.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 147.16 +1.9% |
| Now | 144.45 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
142.83 -1.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 138.63 -4.0% |
| 50-day average | 137.63 -4.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 136.00 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 16, 2026 |
122.84 -15.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 39 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.