TKO
Moving with its group (XLC +1.2%)
- TKO +0.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 12): After its 67 big drops in the past 5 years, TKO was higher a month later 37 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -4.4% and +8.1%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TKO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
175.14 +1.6% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
178.60 +3.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 173.93 · prior close 172.38 | |
| Bargain buy side |
169.67 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
166.38 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 168.80 | 2 in 10 days | 176.04 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 169.67 | 3 in 10 days | 175.14 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 170.48 | 4 in 10 days | 174.30 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 164.47 | 2 in 10 weeks | 180.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 166.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 178.60 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 168.17 | 4 in 10 weeks | 176.69 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TKO's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -2.6% | — | — | — |
Big drop and big gain: among TKO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 250.00 +43.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 231.63 +33.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 2, 2026 |
222.28 +27.8% |
| 200-day average | 193.53 +11.3% |
| 50-day average | 186.37 +7.1% |
| Lowest analyst target | 185.00 +6.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 178.60 +2.7% |
| Now | 173.93 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
172.38 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
172.38 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 166.38 -4.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.