TLN
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TLN −3.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: −4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Not a group move: its ai power & nuclear peers +0.0% (-0.1 pts vs SPY).
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TLN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
372.55 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
390.78 +9.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 344.29 · prior close 358.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
344.83 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
328.74 -8.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 340.53 | 2 in 10 days | 377.25 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 344.83 | 3 in 10 days | 372.55 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 348.89 | 4 in 10 days | 368.21 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 319.64 | 2 in 10 weeks | 401.91 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 328.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 390.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 337.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 380.69 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TLN's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -5.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -8.4% | +4.7% | +33.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -11.0% | -3.1% | -7.7% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.1% | -7.2% | -15.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.0% | +3.0% | -1.5% | -2.7% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -6.1% | +6.6% | -7.4% | -13.3% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -6.0% | -6.7% | -7.9% | -28.5% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -6.2% | +21.8% | +17.8% | -7.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among TLN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Oct 8, 2025 |
445.84 +29.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
438.12 +27.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 390.78 +13.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
358.42 +4.1% |
| 200-day average | 351.38 +2.1% |
| Now | 344.29 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 328.74 -4.5% |
| 50-day average | 324.15 -5.9% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 15, 2026 |
282.15 -18.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.