TLT

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• TLT −0.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 28): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, TLT typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 58% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.2%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #66 of 496.
• 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.