TM
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
197.90 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
200.63 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 195.37 · prior close 195.71 | |
| Bargain buy side |
193.55 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
190.91 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 192.85 | 2 in 10 days | 198.61 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 193.55 | 3 in 10 days | 197.90 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 194.20 | 4 in 10 days | 197.23 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 189.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 202.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 190.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 200.63 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 192.35 | 4 in 10 weeks | 199.13 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TM's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among TM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
248.29 +27.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 200.63 +2.7% |
| 200-day average | 198.56 +1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
195.71 +0.2% |
| Now | 195.37 |
| 50-day average | 192.07 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 190.91 -2.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 25, 2026 |
166.50 -14.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.