TMC
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TMC −3.61% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −3.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TMC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
2.77 +5.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
2.96 +12.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 2.54 · prior close 2.63 | |
| Bargain buy side |
2.50 -5.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
2.34 -11.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 2.45 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 2.82 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 2.50 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 2.77 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 2.54 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 2.73 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 2.25 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 3.07 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 2.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 2.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 2.42 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 2.85 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TMC's daily swings (about 5.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -14.2% | — | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -7.8% | -5.5% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -6.3% | -6.7% | -16.3% | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -6.6% | -3.9% | -15.6% | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | -9.1% | +19.5% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -8.5% | +1.3% | +6.6% | -30.1% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -14.5% | +6.1% | -21.5% | -13.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | -7.5% | +0.2% | -10.4% | -19.8% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -2.6% | — | — | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.7% | +3.5% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | -2.1% | -4.0% | -3.7% | +110.6% |
| Dec 12, 2022 | -1.5% | -22.2% | +2.0% | +5.1% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | -4.8% | +11.2% | -1.0% | +38.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TMC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 13, 2021 |
12.45 +391.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
10.69 +321.7% |
| 200-day average | 5.14 +102.8% |
| 50-day average | 4.04 +59.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 2.96 +16.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
2.63 +3.7% |
| Now | 2.54 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2026 |
2.54 0.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 2.34 -7.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.