TMDX
Moving with the market
- TMDX −0.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TMDX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
77.56 +2.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
80.17 +6.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 75.30 · prior close 75.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
73.53 -2.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
71.14 -5.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.89 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 78.24 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 73.53 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 77.56 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 74.13 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 76.94 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 69.77 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 81.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 71.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 80.17 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 72.44 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 78.73 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TMDX's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -5.8% | +0.5% | — | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -5.3% | +13.8% | +13.7% | — |
| Jul 22, 2026 | -4.2% | +9.6% | +27.6% | — |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.2% | -10.9% | -5.7% | +15.6% |
| May 6, 2026 | -23.2% | -12.0% | -4.8% | +10.0% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -6.3% | -6.3% | -33.0% | -23.0% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | -6.0% | +3.7% | -42.1% | -32.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -4.8% | +13.8% | +4.5% | -29.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TMDX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 27, 2024 |
176.11 +133.9% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 1, 2025 |
150.42 +99.8% |
| 200-day average | 97.89 +30.0% |
| 50-day average | 85.59 +13.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 80.17 +6.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
75.52 +0.3% |
| Now | 75.30 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.14 -5.5% |
| 52-week closing low May 14, 2026 |
62.04 -17.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.