TMO
Moving with the market
- TMO +0.35% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 1): After its 63 big drops in the past 5 years, TMO typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 57% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.5%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #102 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#446 H | +0.1%#413 H | +0.2%#352 H | -0.5%#413 M |
| Big drop Oct 1 (-2.0% or worse) | 63 | +0.3%#102 H | +0.1%#353 H | +0.4%#364 H | +3.3%#262 M |
| Big gain (+2.0% or better) | 61 | +0.1%#252 H | -0.2%#493 H | +2.3%#128 H | +2.8%#285 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.4%#398 M | -0.9%#463 M | +1.1%#247 M | +3.0%#212 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | -2.5%– | -3.6%– | -6.3%– | -20.2%– |
| 52-week high | 5 | +1.0%#68 L | +0.7%#79 L | -3.0%#456 L | -11.0%#410 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +0.2%#70 L | +2.4%#104 L | -2.1%#195 L | +12.9%#76 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 16 | 0.0%#315 M | +0.3%#221 M | -1.3%#386 M | -1.7%#402 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 14 | +0.1%#230 M | +1.9%#77 M | -3.9%#431 M | +1.3%#366 M |
| RSI oversold | 10 | -0.6%#483 M | -1.9%#442 M | -3.9%#446 M | +1.0%#442 L |
| RSI overbought | 15 | +0.6%#149 M | +0.2%#152 M | +1.5%#96 M | -5.3%#331 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TMO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 16 | -0.02% (-0.7 to +0.3) | Medium | #315 of 497 | 50% | -0.10% |
-3%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 16 | +0.34% (-0.5 to +0.8) | Medium | #221 of 497 | 56% | -0.86% |
-7%
+2%
|
|
| 1 month | 16 | -1.30% (-7.3 to +0.6) | Medium | #386 of 497 | 44% | -3.05% |
-15%
+14%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 15 ≈11 indep. | -1.67% (-11.5 to +1.6) | Medium | #402 of 494 | 40% | -7.34% |
-24%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TMO's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 12 | 0.0%M vs 0.0% | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | -1.3%M vs +0.1% | -1.7%L vs -3.5% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 4 | -0.2%L vs -0.1% | +0.4%L vs -0.1% | -1.1%L vs -0.1% | -3.2%L vs +2.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 11 | +0.3%M vs 0.0% | +0.7%M vs +0.2% | -1.6%M vs +0.8% | -2.4%L vs -2.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 5 | -0.3%L vs 0.0% | 0.0%L vs -0.2% | +5.1%L vs -0.8% | -1.1%L vs +1.2% |
The same event split by where TMO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 10 @ $526.65 | +0.5% on the day | +0.3% | +1.0% | +13.8% | … |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $526.29 | +2.5% on the day | +0.8% | -0.5% | -15.4% | +1.6% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Feb 18 @ $512.15 | +2.4% on the day | +0.3% | 0.0% | -8.4% | -12.7% |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Sep 18 @ $479.42 | +1.8% on the day | -0.3% | -4.5% | +12.0% | +17.0% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Aug 15 @ $486.86 | +0.8% on the day | -0.3% | +2.2% | -1.6% | +18.7% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Jan 21 @ $569.47 | +2.4% on the day | +0.3% | +2.0% | -6.1% | -24.1% |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Jul 5 @ $535.98 | +0.8% on the day | -0.7% | +1.5% | +10.7% | +11.3% |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 19 @ $523.41 | +1.8% on the day | -1.6% | +0.7% | +4.8% | +10.7% |
| Aug 29, 2023 | Aug 29 @ $549.68 | +1.9% on the day | +0.6% | -3.4% | -9.4% | -12.5% |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Jul 21 @ $556.39 | +4.4% on the day | +1.7% | -0.1% | -5.3% | -16.4% |
| Apr 28, 2023 | Apr 28 @ $548.81 | +2.2% on the day | -1.2% | -1.5% | -7.3% | -1.1% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Mar 2 @ $542.38 | +1.9% on the day | +1.9% | +0.8% | +5.1% | -5.3% |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Dec 29 @ $550.54 | +2.5% on the day | -1.1% | -4.0% | +2.4% | +3.5% |
| Nov 25, 2022 | Nov 25 @ $544.56 | +0.7% on the day | -2.0% | +2.1% | -1.0% | -1.7% |
| Sep 12, 2022 | Sep 12 @ $571.86 | +1.7% on the day | -3.3% | -6.8% | -13.5% | -3.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.