TMO
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- TMO +2.87% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $6.40 expected (21 analysts); it moved ±5.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.5 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.9% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, TMO was higher a month later 35 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -4.8% and +6.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $650 → $750.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TMO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
684.10 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
697.82 +3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 692.53 · prior close 673.20 | |
| Bargain buy side |
662.47 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
649.45 -3.5% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 659.03 | 2 in 10 days | 687.68 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 662.47 | 3 in 10 days | 684.10 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 665.70 | 4 in 10 days | 680.78 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 641.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 706.01 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 649.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 697.82 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 656.55 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 690.27 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TMO's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TMO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 800.00 +15.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 697.82 +0.8% |
| Now | 692.53 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
692.53 0.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 677.24 -2.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
673.20 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 649.45 -6.2% |
| 50-day average | 634.16 -8.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 560.00 -19.1% |
| 200-day average | 545.98 -21.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 15, 2026 |
437.57 -36.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.