TMUS
Moving with its group (XLC +1.2%)
- TMUS +1.47% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.2% (+1.3 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 9): After its 68 big drops in the past 5 years, TMUS was higher a week later 40 times out of 68; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +3.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Scotiabank maintained Sector Outperform, lowered target $217 → $212.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TMUS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
163.49 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
170.82 +8.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 160.12 · prior close 157.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
152.29 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
145.75 -7.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 150.54 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 165.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 152.29 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 163.49 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 153.93 | 4 in 10 days | 161.74 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 142.05 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 175.28 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 145.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 170.82 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 149.30 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 166.77 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TMUS's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.2% | — | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.6% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | +2.9% | -7.8% | -16.7% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | +2.6% | +0.1% | -10.1% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +3.5% | -1.2% | +0.3% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | +2.5% | +0.6% | +3.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +5.7% | -4.1% | +1.4% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | +3.4% | +2.6% | -5.0% | -8.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among TMUS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 296.00 +84.9% |
| All-time closing high Mar 3, 2025 |
265.27 +65.7% |
| Mean analyst target | 241.50 +50.8% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 20, 2025 |
225.33 +40.7% |
| 200-day average | 187.83 +17.3% |
| 50-day average | 172.98 +8.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 170.82 +6.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 169.00 +5.5% |
| Now | 160.12 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
157.79 -1.5% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 9, 2026 |
148.58 -7.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 145.75 -9.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.