TPC
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TPC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
81.64 +2.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
83.95 +5.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 82.24 · prior close 79.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
78.04 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
75.89 -4.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 77.47 | 2 in 10 days | 82.24 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 78.04 | 3 in 10 days | 81.64 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 78.57 | 4 in 10 days | 81.09 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 74.66 | 2 in 10 weeks | 85.34 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 75.89 | 3 in 10 weeks | 83.95 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 77.06 | 4 in 10 weeks | 82.68 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TPC's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -4.1% | +7.4% | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.5% | -7.5% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.2% | +1.8% | -1.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.4% | -0.7% | -5.0% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -5.6% | -4.7% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -4.4% | +4.5% | +8.0% | -4.2% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -4.2% | -5.7% | +5.3% | +3.9% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -3.9% | +13.3% | +8.8% | +25.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among TPC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 7, 2026 |
99.01 +20.4% |
| 50-day average | 84.27 +2.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 83.95 +2.1% |
| Now | 82.24 |
| 200-day average | 81.46 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
79.82 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 75.89 -7.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
58.56 -28.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.