TPG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TPG +1.21% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TPG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.07 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
44.14 +4.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 42.73 · prior close 42.22 | |
| Bargain buy side |
41.39 -2.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
40.38 -4.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 41.12 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 43.35 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 41.39 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 43.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 41.64 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 42.81 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 39.80 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 44.79 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 40.38 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 44.14 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 40.93 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 43.55 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TPG's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TPG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 6, 2026 |
67.14 +57.1% |
| 50-day average | 48.35 +13.2% |
| 200-day average | 46.04 +7.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 44.14 +3.3% |
| Now | 42.73 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.22 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 40.38 -5.5% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 6, 2026 |
37.03 -13.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.