TPL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TPL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
338.51 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
347.14 +4.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 331.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
324.99 -2.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
316.91 -4.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 322.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 340.76 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 324.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 338.51 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 327.00 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 336.43 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 312.25 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 352.32 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 316.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 347.14 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 321.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 342.39 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TPL's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TPL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 639.00 +92.7% |
| All-time closing high Nov 22, 2024 |
570.13 +71.9% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 9, 2026 |
538.10 +62.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 443.00 +33.6% |
| 200-day average | 400.81 +20.8% |
| 50-day average | 353.24 +6.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 347.14 +4.7% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
331.68 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 316.91 -4.5% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
272.40 -17.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 247.00 -25.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.