TRI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TRI +2.09% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +2.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TRI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
107.99 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
111.27 +5.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 107.60 · prior close 105.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
102.88 -2.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
99.84 -5.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 102.07 | 2 in 10 days | 108.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 102.88 | 3 in 10 days | 107.99 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 103.63 | 4 in 10 days | 107.20 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 98.10 | 2 in 10 weeks | 113.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 99.84 | 3 in 10 weeks | 111.27 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 101.49 | 4 in 10 weeks | 109.46 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TRI's daily swings (about 2.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TRI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 14, 2025 |
204.84 +90.4% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 23, 2025 |
156.84 +45.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 111.27 +3.4% |
| Now | 107.60 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
105.40 -2.0% |
| 50-day average | 101.76 -5.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 99.84 -7.2% |
| 200-day average | 95.55 -11.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 22, 2026 |
76.05 -29.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.